Week 1 lineup decisions

Once the season gets going, Monday will be for thinking about who I might want to put in a claim for. Each week, the teams are sorted by record with points for as the tie breaker and then, in reverse order, get to claim one free agent. The players are allocated at midnight Wednesday/Thursday and then all free agents are free game starting Thursday at 10am. When you waive someone, the same ranking prioritizes claims in the first 36 hours; after that, free game again.

This week, with a game on Thursday night, I think I'll start with my lineup decisions. The Thursday game is Washington at the Giants, so I don't have any players in the game. I don't really need to make any decisions before Sunday, but I'll start thinking about them.

Definitely in:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB Sea
Adrian Peterson, RB Min
Marion Barber, RB Dal
Stephen Gostkowski, PK NE
Dallas Cowboys, TM Dal

The last two are sure things because they are the only ones on my roster at their position.

Definitely out:
Timothy Hightower, RB Az
Kenny Watson, RB Cin
James Jones, WR GB
Deion Branch, WR Sea

The RBs are backups (for now, anyway) and the WRs are hurt. So that's easy.

I need two WRs from:
Marvin Harrison, WR Ind vs. Chi
Joey Galloway, WR TB @ NO
Nate Burleson, WR Sea @ Buf
Devin Hester, WR Chi @ Ind

I'm leaning towards Harrison and Galloway; they were my first two picks and I'm not sure why I shouldn't go with them. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't play Hester, but I could go Burleson; I'd especially like to hear more about the health of Harrison and Galloway.

I need a TE from:
Owen Daniels, TE Hou @ Pit
Zach Miller, TE Oak vs. Den

I'm leaning toward Daniels, he was more of the safe pick and Miller the gamble. Miller does probably have the easier game but Daniels has a much better QB.

I need a FLEX from:
Jamarcus Russell, QB Oak vs. Den
J.T. O'Sullivan, QB SF vs. Az
Trent Edwards, QB Buf vs. Sea
Kevin Smith, RB Det @ Atl
Chester Taylor, RB Min @ GB


I'm pretty sure I'll go with one of the QBs. Edwards is coming off an injury, so I think I'd shy away from him. I'm probably going to lean towards O'Sullivan as having had the better preseason and easier opponent. Still, I did draft Russell earlier, and I might like to go with him instead.

Beginning of the draft

Before the draft, I made a conditional trade. The owner of Team 5 is a huge Jets fan. I offered him this deal: If Favre was still available at my pick, pick 12 of the first round, I'd give him that pick and my 5th round pick for his 2nd and 4th round picks. He took the offer.

Here's how the first round went:
1. Tom Brady, QB NE
2. Payton Manning, QB Ind
3. Drew Brees, QB NO
4. Ladanian Tomlinson, RB SD
5.
So, he could have taken Steven Jackson or Brian Westbrook or Carson Palmer.
5. Bret Favre, QB NYJ
So, my great trade was trashed.
6. Carson Palmer, QB Cin
7. Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pit
8. Donovan McNabb, QB Phi
9. Eli Manning, QB NYG
10. Brian Westbrook, RB Phi
11. Steven Jackson, RB StL
12.
I thought I really needed to take a QB since I already had Adrian Peterson and Marion Barber as keepers, costing me my 2nd and 3rd round picks. I wanted to take Joseph Addai, RB Ind who was clearly the best player on the board. Among QBs, I was considering Matt Hasselbeck, QB Sea and Mark Bulger, QB StL. I went with
12. Matt Hasselbeck, QB Sea
I'm not really sure that that was the right thing to do, less so after Bulger looked really good in a preseason game last night while Hasselbeck won't play with back issues. Anyway.

I could have drafted Addai and planned to play three RBs most weeks instead of two QBs. I just wasn't ready to make that choice.

Here's my whole draft:
1. Matt Hasselbeck, QB Sea
2. Adrian Peterson, RB Min (keeper)
3. Marion Barber, RB Dal (keeper, second time)
4. Jamarcus Russell, QB Oak
The last Oakland QB I took was Aaron Brooks and that was a complete disaster. I wasn't really excited about Russell, either. I was focused on getting better QB depth and I felt I could get a good #3 RB when the draft came all the way around to me again. The next few QBs off the board were Vince Yound, Tavaris Jackson, and Chad Pennington. I think I'd again choose Russell over those guys.
5. Kevin Smith, RB Det
One reason for this pick is that I enjoyed following UCF (the University of Central Florida), where Smith was a 2000 yard RB last year. I picked him over Jonathan Stewart of Carolina because Smith is likely to be the clear #1 while Stewart will share time with DeAngelo Williams. Of course, both Stewart and Williams ran for 100 yards last night, but I'm still pretty sure this was a good pick.
6. J.T. O'Sullivan, QB SF
If I'd known I could get him and Russell like this, I might have taken Addai. However, I think Team 11 only passed on O'Sullivan because he thought I wouldn't take another QB this early. He ended up getting Troy Smith in the 10th round, which was a pretty good pick for him. I'm psyched about this pick. Having 4 starting QBs leaves me with some confidence that I'll feel good about playing some two of them each week. I'm curious which two that will end up being though.
7. Marvin Harrison, WR Ind
Obviously he only fell this far because of last year's injuries. I've heard a lot of good reports on his health this preseason, so I'm reasonably happy to have him as my #1 WR. Lee Evans and Chris Chambers were the next two WRs off the board, and I like Harrison a lot better.
8. Trent Edwards, QB Buf (keeper)
9. Chester Taylor, RB Min
Pundits had Adrian Peterson anywhere from 1 to 5 among RBs. Those who had him later pointed to injury concerns. I definitely wanted to get Taylor and I'm quite pleased he lasted this long. Ahman Green and Jerious Norwood were the next two RBs taken, so I don't feel that this was too early for Taylor.
10. Joey Galloway, WR TB
I think he makes a relatively good #2 WR, especially given how long I waited to start taking WRs. The next WRs off the board were Anthony Gonzalez, Derrick Mason, Reggie Brown, and Desean Jackson. The guy who picked Jackson probably had the worst draft of everyone - I'll just mention picking Matt Leinhart, QB Az in the second round. Jackson has certainly been talked up a ton but I think he could have waited a couple of rounds to get him.
11. Nate Burleson, WR Sea
12. Devin Hester, WR Chi
I felt pretty good about these two picks. Burleson is probably the top WR in Seattle until their injury problems resolve themselves. I like pairing him with Hasselbeck, I'm kinda thinking of it as a bet on the Pass line after my earlier bet on Hasselbeck's back. Hester is more of a boom/bust bet, but something I felt like making with my 4th WR.
13. Dallas Cowboys, DT Dal
I was the 7th team to take a defense (and the Giants were kept). I'm not really sure that this was a good pick, but they were the top team on my list and I suspected there was a big drop off to the rest of the teams on my list.
14. Owen Daniels, TE Hou
Had a ton of catches last year but not many TDs, hence his availability here as the 12th TE taken. I had to decide between he and Ben Watson, TE NE and went with Daniels because he was on my roster last year, so I felt good about him, and he doesn't play with anyone who demands the ball like Randy Moss.
15. Zach Miller, TE Oak
He's had a nice preseason and I'm hoping he and Russell will produce a lot.
16. James Jones, WR GB
He should have a nice rapport with Rodgers since they've been second teamers together. He's been getting good press this preseason but he's definitely #3 in GB. I was choosing between Jones and Jabar Gaffney, WR NE who went with the next pick. NE probably plays three WRs a lot more than GB, but I guess I was still passing up non-Randy Moss Patriot receivers.
17. Stephen Gostkowski, PK NE
But not kickers. This was the 4th kicker taken and another guy I had last year. Lot's of people counsel not taking a kicker until the last round, but with the way our keepers work, I like using the latest possible round for gambles.
18. Kenny Watson, RB Cin
Watson is definitely not a young guy I'm hoping to do well with next year. But, no one knows how Cincy will distribute the carries and he might just get a bunch of them. As a #5 RB, I like that potential. Even if he is just one guy in a committee, he should score something if I need him during a bye week when some other guys are hurt.
19. Deion Branch, WR Sea
If he'd been healthy, he'd probably have gone before I started taking WRs. Of course, he isn't healthy and will certainly miss some games. But, if he eventually comes back strong, he'll be a solid addition and possibly a guy to keep for next year. Our league has a 1 man IR, so after the first games, I can move him to IR and pick up someone else (except that we can only have 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 3 TEs, 2 PKs, 2 TMs total, including IR).
20. Timothy Hightower, RB Az
If this turns out to be Edge's last year, then Hightower is first in line to replace him. And, he might get goal line carries this year, making him possibly usable in a pinch.

Preliminary keepers

Every team gets to keep up to three players, and can make one change at the draft Saturday morning.
(1) Tony Romo QB Dal 4, W. Parker RB Pit 5
(2) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jax 8, Michael Turner, RB Atl 9, Brian Griese, QB TB 13
(3) Jason Campbell, QB Was 6, Ryan Grant, RB GB 8, Wes Welker, WR NE 13
(4) None
(5) Matt Schaub, QB Hou 8, Jason Witten, TE Dal 12
(6) Greg Jennings, WR GB 10, Patrick Crayton, WR Dal 17
(7) Kellen Winslow, TE Cle 5, NY Giants, TM NYG 17, Jason Hanson, PK Det(?) 18
(8) Michael Bennett, RB TB 10
(9) Jay Cutler, QB Den 4, Aaron Rodgers, QB GB 11, Reggie Williams, WR Jax 17
(10) Randy Moss, WR NE 2, David Garrard, QB Jax 4, Lendale White, RB Ten 7
(11) Marques Colston, WR NO 4, Derek Anderson, QB Cle 8, Santonio Holmes, WR Pit 12
(12) (Me) Adrian Peterson, RB Min 2, Marion Barber, RB Dal 3, Trent Edwards, QB Buf 8

Definitely not exactly what I predicted. Maybe tomorrow I'll have a chance to go through the difference. Immediate observations are that I don't understand Griese or Bennett; I told you the guys in the league are mostly from northern Florida. I hope that explains it. I wouldn't have kept Jason Hanson, whatever team he might be on, if I had any other reasonable options. And I'm guessing Team 4 just missed the deadline; they had some nice keeper options.

Last set of other teams

Final trot through of the keeper prospects for other teams.
Pick 9:
Jay Cutler, QB Den 4
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB 11
James Jones, WR GB 16
Reggie Williams, WR Jax 17
Tony Scheffler, TE Den 8
I'd go with the two QBs and Jones.
Pick 10:
David Garrard, QB Jax 4
LenDale White, RB Ten 7
Randy Moss, WR NE 2
Dallas Clark, TE Ind 13
Given that they've got the 3rd pick in the 2nd round, I don't think they need to keep Moss. I think White is probably a bit of a value in the 7th round but the Titans sure are talking up their rookie.
Pick 11:
Derek Anderson, QB Cle 8
Philip Rivers, QB SD 2
Troy Smith, QB Bal 8
Marques Colston, WR NO 4
Roddy White, WR Atl 8
Santonio Holmes, WR Pit 12
I'd certainly keep Anderson and Holmes. The third keeper is a tough choice between Colston and White but I'd keep Smith if I knew he was going to be the starter.

And then I'm pick 12. I think I'm set with
Adrian Peterson, RB Min 2
Marion Barber, RB Dal 3
Trent Edwards, QB Buf 8

Larry

Further keeper prospects for other teams

Again, these are just my thoughts. Everyone has to give a preliminary keeper list on Wednesday and can make one change on draft day.

Pick 5:
Jason Witten, TE Dal 12
Plaxico Burress, WR NYG 4
Vincent Jackson, WR SD 7
Joey Porter, WR Jax 9
I'd probably just keep Witten.
Pick 6:
Maurice Morris, RB Sea 8
Greg Jennings, WR GB 10
Patrick Crayton, WR Dal 17
Pick 7:
DJ Hackett, WR Car 7
Kellen Winslow, TE Cle 5
New York Giants, TM NYG 17
I'm not sure what I'd do here
Pick 8:
Chris Redman, QB Atl 8
Kyle Boller, QB Bal 14
Nate Burleson, WR Sea 8
Dwayne Bowe, WR KC 13
Dante Stallworth, WR NE 8
Deion Branch, WR Sea 7
Isaac Bruce, WR SF 10
Heath Miller, TE Pit 5
I'd go with either or the QBs if they were definitely the starter, probably not Miller or Bruce.

More later.

Other teams keeper prospects

I want to go through the other teams and what I think they might do with their keepers. That should help me think about who I want to keep, though after Trent Edwards had a pretty nice 2nd preseason game, I'm feeling a lot stronger about him.

These are my guesses for who they;ll keep. On Wednesday we have to give a preliminary set of choices and can make one change on draft day.

Pick 1:
Tony Romo, QB Dal 4
Willie Parker, RB Pit 5
nothing else exciting. He's on the record as leaning towards Brady with the first pick. That gives him a formidable duo.
Pick 2:
Michael Turner, RB Atl 9
Sidney Rice, WR Min 17
Pick 3:
Tavaris Jackson, QB Min 4
Jason Campbell, QB Was 6
Ryan Grant, RB GB 8
Selvin Young, RB Den 8
Kellen Winslow, TE Cle 5
I'd guess the first 3 but the other two could be in the mix
Pck 4:
Brandon Marshall, WR Den 17
Ted Ginn, Jr WR Mia 12
Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ind 10
Kevin Curtis, WR Phi 9
Not sure what I'd do here, maybe Marshall and Curtis only.

I'll do some more teams tomorrow. See you then.

More keeper thoughts

As mentioned in the last post, I plan to keep Adrian Peterson, RB Min with my second pick and Marion Barber, RB Dal with my third pick. For the third keeper, I'm looking at one of:

Jeff Garcia, QB TB, 4th round
Trent Edwards, QB Buf, 8th round
Braylon Edwards, WR Cle, 5th round
Jabar Gaffney, WR NE, 8th round

Garcia was the number 17 QB in our scoring system last year even with missing two games and most of another. I'd have to be ready to use him as my #2 QB if I kept him, though. Obviously, if I pass on him, I need to find a better QB with the same pick. I'm leaning against keeping him, but I'm still open to it.

If I knew for sure that Trent Edwards was going to be the starter for the Bills all year long, I'd feel really good about getting a starter in the 8th round. I think I'm most likely to go with him. I understand they've got a new Offensive Coordinator and that is being spoken of as a positive thing for him, but I'm not entirely sold on him yet.

I usually don't go for WRs until after I've got 3 QBs and 4 RBs and that's my main argument against Edwards. I figure he's a top 10 WR on most draft boards so he would probably go by the end of the fifth round, but maybe not. I'm also a bit concerned about the Browns schedule.

As for Gaffney, I'll probably be trying to get my #1 WR in the 8th round. He's getting lots of good press this summer but he'll still be the #3 WR for the Pats and I think that means he shouldn't be my #1. If he's available in round 12 or so, I might try to grab him there.

Keeper prospects

I think these are my keeper options:

Jeff Garcia, QB TB 4th round
Trent Edwards, QB Buf 8th round
Sage Rosenfels, QB Hou 8th round
Adrian Peterson, RB Min 2nd round
Marion Barber, RB Dal 3rd round (already kept once)
DeAngelo Williams, RB Car 3rd round
DeShaun Foster, RB SF 6th round
Fred Jackson, RB Buf 8th round
Darren Sproles, RB SD 8th round
TJ Houshmanzadeh, WR Cin 1st round (already kept once)
Braylon Edwards, WR Cle 5th round (already kept once)
Jabar Gaffney, WR NE 8th round
Shaun McDonald, WR Det 8th round
Chris Henry, WR none, 10th round
Owen Daniels, TE Hou 8th round
Nate Kaeding, PK SD 8th round
Stephen Gostkowski, PK NE 15th round
Tenessee Titans, TM Ten 8th round
Minnesota Vikings, TM Min 8th round

(Free agents are treated as though they'd been drafted in the 10th round, hence all of the 8th rounders here. What do other leagues do? The Vikings were actually my 10th round pick.)

I see Peterson and Barber as huge bargains so I will keep them barring any major injuries before the draft. I think I would keep Trent Edwards or Jeff Garcia as the third keeper (remember the value of QBs in this league). I'd have considered Braylon Edwards and TJ Houshmanzadeh and DeAngelo Williams if they were a couple of rounds later. Longer shots are Jabar Gaffney, who has been getting lots of good publicity, and Gostkowski.

Last year's first round

I think that last year's first round should give a good idea of what value different positions have for our league and how it differs from standard leagues. I should point out that I won the championship in 2005 and ended up with a terrible team in 2006, thus earning me the second pick.

1. Ladanian Tomlinson, RB SD
2. Steven Jackson, RB StL (me!)
3. Payton Manning, QB Ind
4. Tom Brady, QB NE
5. Carson Palmer, QB Cin
6. Marc Bulger, QB StL
7. Donovan McNabb, QB Phi
8. Matt Hasselbeck, QB Sea
9. Joseph Addai, RB Ind
10. Larry Johnson, RB KC (a keeper)
11. Eli Manning, QB NYG
12. Shaun Alexander, RB Sea (how quickly he has fallen)

Players who might have gone in the first round but who were keepers include:
Frank Gore, RB SF, Willie Parker, RB Pit, Drew Brees, QB NO

First post!

Our draft is 7 am on August 23 (it's 10 on the east coast where the draft takes place). The league is a keeper league; you can keep up zero to three players. The cost is a pick earlier than where the player was drafted last year; two rounds if they weren't kept the previous year, four additional rounds if they were, and eight additional rounds if the last case. Last year I drafter Brandon Marshall, WR Den in the 17th round. This year, the team I traded him to can keep him for a 15th round pick, next year an 11th round pick, and then a 3rd rounder the next year.

I'll put up my keeper options in a post sometime soon and talk through what I think I'll do with my keepers.

I should say I won the championship last year so I've got the 12th pick this year.